More Supply is coming TOP, will the Property Price drop?

Published on 1 Dec 2022

Do you remember before COVid there was quite a number of the mega projects with more than 1,000 units launched right?

Such as Stirling Residences, Riverfront Residences, Parc Esta, Affiinity at Serangoon, Florence Residences, Jadescape, Treasure at Tampines, Normanton Park, Avenue South Residence…

That will bring thousands and thousands of supply flood into the market by 2023.

So, the key question is, will this cause oversupply and the property price to drop?

Source: URA

In my opinion, yes indeed there are a handful of mega projects going to TOP next year.

In fact, some sellers that rushing to sell, they already started the Subsale this year.

Here is my recent video about the mega condo TOP 2023. Feel free to watch! 🙂

For those selling before the TOP, most likely they are motivated sellers.

Therefore, some buyers might be able to get the price cheaper for now as compared to the price when it TOP next year.

Because those sellers will not be so “ganjiong(rushing) to sell when they can rent out the unit during this hot housing rental market.

Hot Singapore Rental Market

One Door Closes Another Opens?

However, there is always opportunity around.

I think there will be great opportunity ahead if you wish to target a resale condo that is near to the TOP project.

Why is that so?

Opportunity is always around

New Launch Supply will Help or Harm the Resale Condo Nearby?

Take for example the project near Queenstown MRT.

We have Commonwealth Towers TOP in 2017, Queenspeak TOP in 2020 and Stirling Residences just TOP in 2022.

New Condo Queenstown MRT

As you can see from the map, both Commonwealth Towers and Queens Peak are just side by side.

In March 2020, Queens Peak obtained TOP.  So, is this a good thing happen to Commonwealth Towers owners?

Imagine if you are one of the owners at Commonwealth Towers.  Is it a good news or bad news to you?

I am sure there are some agents told you that, if you buy a new launch condo that is surrounded by some empty lands, you are most likely going to be “Huat Kueh” (making a lot of profit)!

According to some agents, the reason is because the empty land price nearby will be higher and the developer will also sell much higher price than what you can buy now.  That’s why the future new launch nearby will push up your condo price.

However, my study shows that is not always the case!

Queens Peak vs Commonwealth Towers

It really subject to many different factors.

The new launch supply in the future can help to push your price higher but also can be your strong competitor and bring down your price!

Here are my examples.  I break it into 1-Bedder and 3-Bedder.

Why? Let’s take a look at the unit mix of Queens Peak.

Queens Peak unit mix

There are 256 units of 1-Bedder and 261 units of 3-Bedder at Queens Peak.

They are much higher than any other unit types.

Next, let see how the high supply in 1-Bedder coming from Queens Peak will affect the price of 1-Bedder Commonwealth Towers?

Commonwealth Tower 1 Bedroom Profit

Before Queens Peak obtained TOP, the profit of 1-Bedder at Commonwealth Towers are more than $100,000.

But, as soon as Queens Peak obtains TOP, the impact is big and the profit drops significantly!

And this is the case study for 1-Bedder.

How about 3-Bedder since there are even more supply?

Commonwealth Tower 3 Bedroom Profit

But, the result shows a contradiction. The high supply in 3-Bedder at Queens Peak did not bring down the price at Commonwealth Towers.

Instead, the profit went up even much more and the 3-Bedder owners at Commonwealth Towers all become “Huat Kueh” now!

The key question again, why is that so?

What is the Biggest Factor?

After my research, I find out that is actually due to the layout!

1-Bedder layout are almost similar between both projects, that’s why new supply would create competition and bring the price down.

Queens Peak vs Commonwealth Towers

After my research, I find out that is actually due to the layout!

1-Bedder layout are almost similar style between both projects, that’s why new supply would create competition and bring the price down.

Now, let’s look at their 3-bedder.

Queens Peak vs Commonwealth Towers

For their 3-Bedder, you can spot the differences.

Queens Peak despite having a bigger size, but it comes with some wasted space especially at the balcony and foyer.

Two of the bedrooms could not fit in a Queen-size bed.

Whereas the 3-bedder at Commonwealth Towers, although the overall size is slightly smaller, but it totally make good use of layout efficiency!

Comes with all good bedroom size and also enclosed kitchen!

I think if you are the buyer, after viewing the 3-bedder units in both Queens Peak and Commonwealth Towers, you would prefer Commonwealth Towers!

What have you learn?

So in this case, you should buy the 3-bedroom at Commonwealth Towers even before Queens Peak TOP, knowing that there is no better layout in the upcoming supply. Even before the price jump at Commonwealth Towers!

That’s when research is very important. In a way, it helps you to “predict” the future.

Based on what I shared just now, you will be able to see if you should get in and buy now or just wait?

What’s gonna happen when there are more mega projects going to TOP next year?

Now, Stirling Residences just TOP, how will this affect QueensPeak and Commonwealth Towers pricing? Will it up or down?

These are the kind of property analysis that I can do for my clients.

I will do the project analysis of certain area, to see when the best timing is to buy or sell for a certain project.

Plan For Yourself is very Important!

It’s not just about selling at the record breaking price, but you may also end up buying high as well in this seller’s market.

I suggest we have a short meet up first where I can share with you based on your case and what is the best scenario moving forward and based on the market now what are the projects best suit you!

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